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House District 40

Wake County · 2026
Likely D
Partisan baseline (2024)
D+24.8
runs 26.4 pts more Democratic than NC overall · moving toward Democrats since 2018
2024 result
D+28.6
won by John (D)
Rep. Phil Rubin
Democrat · Incumbent
  • Attorney from Wake County.
  • Appointed to the District 40 seat in January 2025, succeeding Joe John.
campaign site
–
No major party opponent
Republican · 2026
  • No Republican is on the November ballot for this seat.

Election night results

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Live returns and a precinct map for this race on Nov. 3.

Early voting

See early voting ›

Ballots cast so far in this district, in person and by mail. Updated every morning.

Who lives here

The people of House District 40, from the Census American Community Survey (2020-2024). The dark tick on each bar marks North Carolina overall.

Median household income
$113,647
NC
▲ vs NC · NC $75k
Bachelor's degree or higher
66%
NC
▲ vs NC · NC 36%
Poverty rate
6%
NC
▼ vs NC · NC 13%
Homeownership
64%
NC
▼ vs NC · NC 67%
Unemployment
2.6%
NC
▼ vs NC · NC 4.7%
Uninsured rate
5%
NC
▼ vs NC · NC 10%
Top communities: Raleigh 99% · Durham 1%

Who registers vs. who votes

Each group's share of registered voters against its share of those who actually voted in 2024. About 69k voters are registered here; 54,806 voted in 2024.

White
77%
80%
Black
12%
10%
Hispanic
3.9%
3.3%
Asian
3.0%
2.8%
American Indian
0.2%
0.2%
Other
3.8%
3.1%
Registered (2024)Voted (2024)
Voter race and ethnicity are self-reported at registration; voters without a designation (8% here) are excluded from the voted-side shares. Source: NCSBE voter file, 2024.

How this seat has moved

Actual result (solid)MRPI composite (dashed)Shaded = midterm

How far this district swings

Across these cycles the Democratic share of the two-party vote here has ranged from 62% to 64%.

Precinct detail

22 precincts.

About this seat

HD-40 is rated Likely D from its 2024 partisan baseline of D+24.8. Districts this far from even are not competitive in a typical cycle - the outcome tracks the district’s underlying partisanship rather than individual campaigns. Democrats have gained 1.8 points of vote share here since 2018, moving the seat’s two-way margin 3.7 points their way.

Campaign money

Follow the money ›
Rubin (D) $8K cashNo Republican on the ballot
Rubin (D) is unopposed by a Republican and holds $8K cash on hand. Raised this cycle: $69K. No Republican is on the November ballot here, so no committee reports on that side.
Actual legislative results, observed except where marked · NCSBE 2018–2024 · boundaries: Redistricting Data Hub (redistrictingdatahub.org) · demographics: Census ACS 2020–2024 · voter file: NCSBE
Data as of October 29, 2026 · campaign finance last refreshed August 20, 2026
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