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House District 49

Wake County · 2026
Likely D
Partisan baseline (2024)
D+39.2
runs 40.9 pts more Democratic than NC overall · moving toward Democrats since 2018
2024 result
Uncontested
no major-party opponent filed · Ball (D) unopposed
Rep. Cynthia Ball
Democrat · Incumbent
  • Mediator serving as House Deputy Democratic Leader.
  • Serving her fifth term representing Wake County.
campaign site
Daran Thomas
Republican · Candidate
  • Bio unavailable
campaign site

Election night results

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Live returns and a precinct map for this race on Nov. 3.

Early voting

See early voting ›

Ballots cast so far in this district, in person and by mail. Updated every morning.

Who lives here

The people of House District 49, from the Census American Community Survey (2020-2024). The dark tick on each bar marks North Carolina overall.

Median household income
$88,038
NC
▲ vs NC · NC $75k
Bachelor's degree or higher
66%
NC
▲ vs NC · NC 36%
Poverty rate
17%
NC
▲ vs NC · NC 13%
Homeownership
39%
NC
▼ vs NC · NC 67%
Unemployment
4.4%
NC
▼ vs NC · NC 4.7%
Uninsured rate
6%
NC
▼ vs NC · NC 10%
Top communities: Raleigh 93% · Cary 7%

Who registers vs. who votes

Each group's share of registered voters against its share of those who actually voted in 2024. About 61k voters are registered here; 42,874 voted in 2024.

White
73%
78%
Black
14%
11%
Hispanic
4.5%
3.8%
Asian
3.6%
3.5%
American Indian
0.2%
0.2%
Other
5.3%
3.3%
Registered (2024)Voted (2024)
Voter race and ethnicity are self-reported at registration; voters without a designation (14% here) are excluded from the voted-side shares. Source: NCSBE voter file, 2024.

How this seat has moved

Actual result (solid)MRPI composite (dashed)Shaded = midterm
Hollow points are estimates, not measured results: 2024 uncontested (100% estimated) - no major-party opponent, so the value shown is the district’s underlying partisanship, not an election result. See Methodology. Solid points can also carry a smaller estimated share where old district lines crossed today’s (2022 34%); hover any point for the exact split.

How far this district swings

Across these cycles the Democratic share of the two-party vote here has ranged from 70% to 72%.

Precinct detail

17 precincts.

About this seat

HD-49 is rated Likely D from its 2024 partisan baseline of D+39.2. Districts this far from even are not competitive in a typical cycle - the outcome tracks the district’s underlying partisanship rather than individual campaigns. Democrats have gained 0.7 points of vote share here since 2018, moving the seat’s two-way margin 1.4 points their way.

Campaign money

Follow the money ›
Ball (D) $32K cash$1K cash Thomas (R)
Ball holds 27.3x the cash on hand. Raised this cycle: Ball $204K / Thomas $3K.
Actual legislative results, observed except where marked · NCSBE 2018–2024 · boundaries: Redistricting Data Hub (redistrictingdatahub.org) · demographics: Census ACS 2020–2024 · voter file: NCSBE
Data as of October 29, 2026 · campaign finance last refreshed August 20, 2026
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