Early Vote Day Report: Day 13
Snapshot
After 13 days of early voting, North Carolinians have cast 1,961,168 ballots in person and by mail, 36% more than at the same point in 2022. The Democratic turnout edge widened to 13.1 points on Tuesday, from 12.8 after Monday: 34.0% of registered Democrats have voted, against 20.9% of registered Republicans. At this point in 2022 the gap was 2.1. If the last four days run like 2022's, Republicans would need to out-vote Democrats by more than 260,000 on Election Day to erase their ballot lead, 46% more than in 2022 (177,807). 179,386 voted in person on Tuesday, 33% more than on 2022's thirteenth day of early voting (135,209). Republicans had their best day yet, 30.3% of the day's ballots, but still ran behind their own 2022 pace (33.6% on 2022's Tuesday) and behind Democrats (34.7%). Democrats' ballot lead now tops 300,000 (305,515).
Seats to watch today
- HD-5, Ward (R), R+4.8 in 2024. Tuesday's ballots widened the Democratic turnout edge here by 1.2 points, the biggest one-day jump of the 31 seats to watch. Democrats lead turnout by 14.0 points, against 6.0 at this point in 2022.
- HD-73, Almond (R), R+5.0 in 2024. 57% more ballots have been cast here than at this point in 2022, all parties together, the second-biggest increase of the 31 seats to watch. Democrats lead turnout by 10.0 points, against Republicans by 1.0 then.
- SD-42, Bradley (D), D+3.3 in 2024. Since this point in 2022, the turnout edge has swung 12.9 points toward Democrats. Democrats lead turnout by 15.5 points, against 2.6 then.
- HD-63, open seat, R+6.1 in 2024. Democrats lead turnout by 9.0 points here, the narrowest edge of the 31 seats to watch, against Republicans by 0.4 at this point in 2022.
