Early Vote Day Report: Day 15
Snapshot
After 15 days of early voting, North Carolinians have cast 2,353,234 ballots in person and by mail, 34% more than at the same point in 2022. 39.7% of registered Democrats have voted, against 25.9% of registered Republicans, a 13.8-point turnout edge. At this point in 2022 the gap was 2.1. Among sporadic and unlikely voters, 197,625 Democrats have voted, more than double this point in 2022 (95,737), and 186,791 unaffiliated voters, nearly double (95,220). Republicans are down 10% (81,150 against 89,837). These voters account for more than half of the growth in Democrats' ballot lead since 2022. If the last two days run like 2022's, Republicans would need to out-vote Democrats by more than 295,000 on Election Day to erase their ballot lead, 66% more than in 2022 (177,807). 194,087 voted in person on Thursday, 24% more than on 2022's fifteenth day of early voting (157,145). Unaffiliated voters out-voted Democrats for the second straight day, 71,767 to 66,616, a wider margin than Wednesday's. Republicans cast 59,629.
Seats to watch today
- HD-59, Branson (R), R+8.0 in 2024. The turnout edge has swung 13.3 points toward Democrats since this point in 2022, the fifth-biggest swing of the 31 seats to watch. Democratic ballots are up 47%, Republican 7%.
- HD-9, Reeder (R), R+7.0 in 2024. The turnout edge narrowed 0.3 points here on Thursday, one of 8 seats to watch where it did. Democrats lead turnout by 12.2 points, against 1.4 at this point in 2022.
- HD-7, open seat, R+9.9 in 2024. Republican ballots are up 29% from this point in 2022, the second-biggest Republican gain of the 31 seats to watch. Democratic ballots are up 31%, unaffiliated up 67%.
- SD-24, Britt (R), R+8.8 in 2024. Republican ballots are up 34% from this point in 2022, the biggest Republican gain of the 31 seats to watch. Democratic ballots are up 22%, unaffiliated up 66%.
- SD-4, Newton (R), R+7.3 in 2024. Democrats lead turnout by 10.6 points here, the third-narrowest edge of the 31 seats to watch, against Republicans by 0.4 at this point in 2022.
