Early Vote Day Report: Day 16
Snapshot
After 16 days of early voting, North Carolinians have cast 2,612,347 ballots in person and by mail, 32% more than at the same point in 2022. 43.3% of registered Democrats have voted, against 29.2% of registered Republicans, a 14.2-point turnout edge. At this point in 2022 the gap was 2.1. If the last day runs like 2022's, Republicans would need to out-vote Democrats by more than 325,000 on Election Day to erase their ballot lead, 83% more than in 2022 (177,807). 249,442 voted in person on Friday, 17% more than on 2022's sixteenth day (212,679), and they were younger than on the days before: 25.4% were 65 or older, against 44.0%, and 29.4% were occasional voters (sporadic or unlikely), against 20.0%. On 2022's Friday the shares were 26.6% and 23.3%. Unaffiliated voters out-voted Democrats for the third straight day, 94,998 to 82,985, a wider margin than Thursday's. Republicans cast 75,295. The Democratic turnout edge widened to 14.2 points on Friday, from 13.8 after Thursday.
Seats to watch today
- HD-20, open seat, R+9.6 in 2024. Friday's ballots widened the Democratic turnout edge here by 0.9 points, the biggest one-day jump of the 31 seats to watch. Democrats lead turnout by 14.5 points, against 4.8 at this point in 2022.
- HD-24, Pittman (D), D+1.7 in 2024. Republicans led turnout at this point in 2022, by 0.9 points; Democrats lead by 11.4 now.
- HD-64, Riddell (R), R+6.1 in 2024. 35% more ballots have been cast here than at this point in 2022, all parties together, the tenth-biggest increase of the 31 seats to watch. Democrats lead turnout by 14.8 points, against 0.4 then.
- HD-98, Helfrich (D), D+0.9 in 2024. The turnout edge has swung 11.8 points toward Democrats since this point in 2022, the fourteenth-biggest swing of the 31 seats to watch. Democratic ballots are up 30%, Republican flat.
